The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck. By David Spiegelhalter. Pelican; 512 pages; £22. To be published in America by W.W. Norton in March; $32.99 A hazard of ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...